How Green Are Electric Vehicles, Really?

Today we're going to talk a little about electric vehicles.

Of the two reasons EVs have become so popular over the past decade, one is that they offer an alternative that can keep mobility going should fossil fuel sources run out; the other is that they run on clean energy — that is, zero greenhouse gas emissions compared with petrol or diesel cars.

But what about the battery itself?

According to the 2019 update of Romare & Dahllöf's report for IVL, “The Life Cycle Energy Consumption and GHG Emissions from Lithium-Ion Batteries,” the environmental harm caused during the production of a battery is equal to the harm a petrol or diesel car causes over an average of 3.6 years of use.

At the current level of technology, the average lifespan of these batteries worldwide has been measured at 6.5 years. In other words, a battery replacement was needed on average every 6.5 years. The resulting average naturally falls below the vehicles' catalogue figures — because catalogue figures are what you reach under the most ideal usage.

The first 3.6 years offset the environmental harm caused during production, while the following 2.9 years — with zero carbon emissions — form a net contribution to the environment. Is that enough? By the logic of “one is greater than zero,” it certainly looks sufficient and green. But because of the high cost of battery replacement, it seems to load a bit too much of the environmental responsibility onto consumers' shoulders.

Why did I tell you all this?

Criticism that EVs will turn into “disposable” cars after a while led me to look somewhere else entirely.

The database of GHG (Greenhouse Gas Emissions) conversion factors is published every year by DEFRA (the UK's Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs). It's open source; anyone can access and download it. It's among the most widely referenced sources in the world on this topic.

Let's glance at one of the categories at random in the passenger vehicles tab of the DEFRA database. For diesel cars in the “mini” market segment, the change in calculated emission impact over the five-year period from 2019 to 2023:

These figures refer not to the cars produced in those years, but to the average impact of all vehicles in circulation. Even though vehicles age every year — and the theory says aging vehicles should emit more — there's an appearance that the harm they cause to the environment is steadily decreasing year after year.

What do you say? Will someone one day come out and say, “Sorry, it turns out things weren't so dire after all”?

Even though Toyota's CEO has announced they're working on an amazing battery technology, what should we make of the fact that the other automotive giants devote the lion's share of their R&D budgets not to new battery technologies but to alternative fuel types (boron, hydrocarbons…)?

Will the second-hand market for electric vehicles one day disappear?